Delphi Method

The Delphi method is a type of survey of specialist opinion. It is used especially for working out broad based, future estimation rather than sales estimate. In this technique, a panel of experts is interviewed with the help of a series of questionnaires about a particular product. The information acquired from one of expert is passed onto the others which enable all the experts to get access to all the information available in hand. Using this method the effect of majority opinion can be eliminated and a clear opinion can be landed upon. The questionnaire consists of queries that are significant to the forecast that is being attempted. Their views are analyzed and if there are any strong disagreements, changes are made before the final forecast is prepared.

The Delphi Method is a mutual procedure for devising forecasts concerning a variety of future trends. It usually seeks to fetch expert views together to produce consent of where expertise or movement might lead. The Delphi technique is mostly used when continuing concerns have to be evaluated. As it is a method to recognize topics that are pertinent for the future and it diminishes the implied and intricate information into a single statement and makes it probable to judge upon. So, the use in coalition with other methods like scenarios, technology list or others can be interesting. The evaluation using Delphi technique involves the following steps:

• The issue is elucidated to the group of experts.
• Next is handing out questionnaires to each of the experts.
• Each of the members expresses their viewpoints and submits it to the moderator.
• The moderator arranges the answers and hands them back to the experts.
• Next the answers are analyzed with the group at which point some of the members might consider revising their answers.
• The group evaluates each response before opting for another round of discussion.
• In case of conflict of opinions, the process can be altered based on mutual agreement.

This procedure is usually did over and over again till the panel arrives at a pre defined stopping point.

Questions:

• Explain the steps involved in the Delphi Technique.
• When does procedure come to an end?